Daily bias

Daily bias is a one-line answer to a simple question written down before the session starts: "Today, am I looking for longs, shorts, or nothing?" It is not a prediction and it is not a trade — it is a filter. Every setup you take during the day either agrees with the bias or it does not, and the ones that fight it are the ones you skip.

Without a bias, every candle looks like an opportunity and both directions look tradable five minutes apart. With one, half the chart is automatically eliminated. The value is not in being right about the day — it is in only playing one side, so you stop taking the sell that fights the move you bought an hour earlier. Most intraday losing streaks are not bad entries; they are entries in both directions.

Start on the daily and 4H charts and apply the market structure lesson: is price making higher highs and higher lows, lower highs and lower lows, or ranging? Your default daily bias is simply the direction of the most recent break of structure on the higher timeframe. If the 4H is in a clean sequence of higher lows and just broke a swing high, the bias is long until structure says otherwise — and intraday sell setups are counter-trend trades that need a stronger reason than usual.

Yesterday's high and low are the two most-watched intraday liquidity pools. In a bullish bias, a sweep of the previous day's low followed by a reclaim is a classic long setup — the AMD manipulation phase using yesterday's range instead of the Asian range. In a bearish bias, mirror it at the previous day's high. Mark both levels before the day starts; if price is sitting mid-range between them with no sweep either way, that is information too — often the honest bias is "wait".

The AMD framework from the sessions lesson ties it together. If your higher-timeframe bias is long, you expect the day's manipulation phase to run downward (a sweep of the Asian low or previous day's low) so that the distribution phase can run up. When the London open sweeps the low and reverses in the direction of your bias, the day is behaving the way the model expects — that is when your setups carry the most weight. When manipulation runs against your bias and keeps going, the model is telling you the bias may be wrong today, and the correct response is to downgrade it, not to fight the tape.

1. 1Before your session, check the 4H/daily structure and note the last break of structure and its direction.
2. 2Mark the previous day's high and low, the Asian range if it has formed, and any higher-timeframe zones price is inside or approaching.
3. 3Write one sentence: "Bias today is long/short/neutral because ___ — invalid if ___."
4. 4State the invalidation explicitly. "Invalid if the 4H closes below the last higher low" turns the bias from a hope into a testable statement.
5. 5During the session, only take setups aligned with the sentence. If the invalidation triggers, rewrite the bias or stand down — do not quietly keep trading the old one.