Fundamental vs technical analysis

There are two broad ways to form an opinion on a market. Fundamental analysis asks why price should move. Technical analysis asks when and where to act. They are not rivals; they answer different questions.

• In forex it means interest rates above all: a central bank raising rates usually strengthens its currency, cutting usually weakens it.
• Then inflation (CPI), employment (US non-farm payrolls), growth (GDP), and central bank language at press conferences.
• For gold: real yields, the US dollar, and safe-haven demand. For oil: OPEC supply, inventories, and global demand.
• For crypto: liquidity conditions, regulation, ETF flows and network adoption.
• Strength: it explains the big multi-month direction. Weakness: it gives you no entry, no stop, and no timing.

• The assumption is that price already reflects everything known, so the chart is the fastest summary of the fundamentals.
• Tools: trend structure, support and resistance, candlestick patterns, moving averages, and volume.
• Strength: precise entries, defined invalidation, and a repeatable process you can test.
• Weakness: no chart pattern survives a surprise rate decision. Technicals describe behaviour, they do not predict news.

Suppose the Federal Reserve signals more rate cuts while the European Central Bank holds. The fundamental bias is a weaker dollar, so you are looking to buy EUR/USD rather than sell it. That is the whole fundamental contribution — it filters out half the chart.

You then wait for the technicals: a pullback into a daily support level, a bullish engulfing candle, a confirming close above the pattern high, a stop under the swing low, and a target at the previous resistance. The bias told you the direction; the chart told you the price, the risk and the moment.

• Predictions from anyone who cannot tell you where they would be wrong.
• Indicators stacked on indicators — five oscillators saying the same thing is one opinion, not five.
• News headlines after the move has already happened. Price usually moves on the expectation, not the announcement.