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Lesson 41 of 53

Trend basics

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Before you look for a single pattern, answer one question: what is this market doing right now? Every chart is in one of three states, and each one demands different behaviour.

Uptrend and downtrend structureAn uptrend staircase making higher highs and higher lows, next to a downtrend staircase making lower highs and lower lows.UPTREND — higher highs, higher lowsHHHLDOWNTREND — lower highs, lower lowsLHLL

Uptrend: higher highs and higher lows

  • Each rally pushes above the previous peak (a higher high) and each dip stops above the previous trough (a higher low).
  • What it means: buyers are willing to pay more each time, and sellers cannot force price back to where it was.
  • How to trade it: buy the pullbacks into support, not the breakouts at the top. Bullish candle patterns at a higher low are the highest-probability setups on the chart.
  • It is over when a pullback breaks the last higher low — that is the first structural warning, not the whole reversal.

Downtrend: lower highs and lower lows

  • Each drop makes a new low and each bounce fails below the previous peak.
  • What it means: sellers keep accepting lower prices and buyers keep giving up sooner.
  • How to trade it: sell the bounces into resistance. Bearish reversal candles at a lower high are the mirror of buying higher lows.
  • Downtrends usually move faster than uptrends — fear compresses time, so stops need to respect a wider volatility.

Range: sideways and going nowhere

Range or sideways marketPrice moves horizontally between a flat top and a flat bottom, then breaks out above the top of the range.RANGE CEILINGRANGE FLOORBREAKOUT
  • Highs stop at roughly the same ceiling and lows bounce off roughly the same floor. No new highs, no new lows.
  • What it means: buyers and sellers agree on value for now. Most of the trading day is spent here.
  • How to trade it: fade the edges — buy the floor, sell the ceiling, target the middle. Never chase the middle of a range.
  • Ranges end with a breakout. Wait for a close outside plus a successful retest; the first push through is often a false break.

Trend on which timeframe?

A market can be in an uptrend on the daily and a downtrend on the 15-minute at the same time. Pick your higher timeframe for direction and your lower timeframe for the entry, and never let the lower one talk you out of the higher one.

Reading structure in three steps

  1. 1Mark the last three or four obvious swing highs and swing lows.
  2. 2Read them left to right: are the highs rising or falling? Are the lows rising or falling?
  3. 3Name the state — uptrend, downtrend or range — and only then look for a pattern that fits it.

The trend does most of the work

The same hammer wins far more often in an uptrend at support than it does in a downtrend at resistance. You are not paid for spotting shapes — you are paid for spotting shapes in the right place.

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