News & economic events

Charts show what price has done. Economic news is a large part of why it did it. You do not need to become an economist, but you do need to know which events are scheduled today, because the market's behaviour around them is completely different from its behaviour the rest of the time.

A currency's value reflects expectations about its economy — above all about interest rates. Data that suggests rates will rise tends to strengthen a currency; data suggesting cuts tends to weaken it. The release itself is only a trigger: the market reprices instantly to the new expectation.

• Interest rate decisions — the Fed, ECB, Bank of England and others. The highest-impact events there are, and the statement and press conference often matter more than the rate itself.
• Employment data — above all US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), released the first Friday of each month. Jobs drive wages, wages drive inflation, inflation drives rates.
• Inflation reports — CPI. The single number central banks are steering by, so a surprise reprices rate expectations immediately.
• Central bank speeches — an unscheduled remark from a governor can move a currency as much as data can.
• GDP, retail sales and PMIs — the wider health picture, usually medium impact unless the miss is large.

The Economic Calendar on the home page lists what is coming, when, and how much it usually matters. Each row shows the currency affected, the event, and a colour-coded impact rating — the same convention used across the industry.

• The flag or currency code tells you which pairs are affected — USD news hits EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, gold and US indices at once.
• Previous, forecast and actual are the three columns that matter. The gap between forecast and actual is the story.
• Times are shown for your reference — check them against your own clock before you plan a session.
• Filter the day first, then plan. A single red event can determine whether you trade at all.

• Seconds before: liquidity thins as market makers step back. Spreads widen, sometimes to many times normal.
• At the release: a violent spike, frequently in both directions within a few seconds as the headline is digested.
• Slippage: orders fill at prices well away from where you clicked, because there is nothing in between to fill against.
• Stops are not safe here either — a stop loss can be filled far beyond its level in a fast move, exactly as in a weekend gap.
• Minutes after: the move often partly retraces, then either settles or establishes a new direction once the detail is read.

News trading is a specialism with its own execution requirements. It is not where beginners find an edge, and the volatility that looks like opportunity is the same volatility that removes any control over your entry and exit prices.

• Check the calendar before every session — a thirty-second habit that prevents most avoidable losses.
• Many experienced traders avoid opening new positions in the window around a high-impact release, or use a noticeably smaller size when they do.
• If you already hold a position into news, decide in advance: close it, reduce it, or accept that your stop may fill worse than planned.
• Wait for the dust to settle. Trading the direction that holds fifteen to thirty minutes later is far more tradeable than the spike itself.
• Never widen a stop to survive a news candle. That converts a planned loss into an unplanned one.

This is the practical face of volatility from Module 3: news is the scheduled, predictable cause of the unpredictable price behaviour that lesson described. Same phenomenon, and the same answer — size smaller when it is high.