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Lesson 43 of 53

Supply and demand zones

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Support and resistance describe where price stopped. Supply and demand zones describe where price exploded. A demand zone is the small area a sharp rally started from: so many buy orders arrived that sellers were cleared out in seconds. A supply zone is the area a sharp sell-off started from, for the mirror reason.

Supply and demand zonesA green demand zone sits under a sharp rally and a red supply zone sits above a sharp sell-off. Price later returns to each zone and continues in the original direction.DEMAND ZONE — buyers overwhelmed sellers hereSUPPLY ZONE — sellers overwhelmed buyers hereSHARP MOVE AWAYRETURN TO ZONE → CONTINUEREJECTED FROM SUPPLY

Zones, not lines

This is the practical difference from ordinary support and resistance. A level is one exact price and wicks are constantly poking through it, which is how beginners get stopped out on trades that were basically right. A zone is a band with a top and a bottom — usually drawn from the open of the last opposing candle to the extreme of its wick — so ordinary noise stays inside it.

Line versus zoneA single support line is pierced by wicks, while a shaded zone covering the same highs and lows contains all of them.EXACT LINE — wicks break itZONE — contains the noiseStops placed on the line get picked off.Stops placed beyond the zone survive.

How to identify a zone on a chart

  1. 1Find a sharp, near-vertical move on the 4-hour or daily chart. The move matters more than the base: no strong move away, no zone.
  2. 2Look back at the small cluster of candles the move launched from — often one or two tight candles, or a single opposing candle right before the surge.
  3. 3Draw a rectangle from the body of that last opposing candle to the wick extreme, and extend it forward in time.
  4. 4Mark it fresh. A zone that has not been touched since it formed is the strongest; each retest weakens it as resting orders get used up.

Why price returns to a zone

The move happened too fast for everyone who wanted in. Institutions could not fill their whole position at once, buyers who missed the move are waiting for a discount, and traders who were short into the rally want to exit at breakeven. All of those orders sit in the same area, which is why price so often pulls back into a zone before continuing.

Trading the return — beginner version

  • Trade with the direction of the original move. A demand zone is a buying area in an uptrend, not a reason to catch a falling knife.
  • Wait for confirmation inside the zone: a rejection wick, a bullish engulfing candle, a hammer. The zone gives you the where; the candle gives you the when.
  • Stop loss goes beyond the far edge of the zone, not in the middle of it. If price closes through the zone, the imbalance is gone and the idea is dead.
  • Target the opposite zone or the previous swing. Zone to zone is a natural risk-to-reward structure and often gives 1:2 or better.
Support / resistanceSupply / demand zone
ShapeOne horizontal lineA band with a top and a bottom
Built fromRepeated touches over timeOne sharp imbalance move
Best whenTested many timesFresh and untested
Invalidated byA close beyond the lineA close through the whole zone

Confluence is the point

A demand zone that also sits at a daily support level, in an uptrend, with a bullish engulfing candle printing inside it, is four independent reasons pointing the same way. One reason is a guess. Three or four is a setup.

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